collection/conversion and power transmission. In making this comparison, it is important to note that the manufacturing requirements were generated in very different fashions. In this study, manufacturing investment is derived from estimated production costs versus the Reference Study, where unit production costs were derived from estimated manufacturing investments. Solar Energy Collection/Conversion Manufacturing Requirements Assessment A comparison of the manufacturing requirements for solar energy collection/conversion is shown in the following table. These requirements are derived for comparable scenarios with similar power collection/conversion capabilities. All cost parametrics shown are in FY’96 dollars. Table 4-2 Comparison of Solar Energy Collection/Conversion Requirements One large difference evident in this comparison is the manufacturing investment cost for solar energy collection/conversion systems. The Reference Study assumed the use of advanced silicon solar cell arrays with a specific power of over 400 W/kg. This current study assumed a value of ~ 500 W/kg for an entire solar array assembly using concentrator arrays and ~ 1000 W/kg for thin film photovoltaics used in the Solar Disc concept. Many advances in solar cell technology have been made recently that significantly lower costs while maintaining or inproving performance. These advances may have been difficult to foresee during the Reference Study, and a majority of the required manufacturing investment, almost SUB of the S12B total, was a rough approximation of the solar cell production facility. Also, the resulting cost of $0.71 per W was probably thought of as extremely low back in 1980, whereas current solar cell manufacturing practices for ground PV has almost reached this cost level today with further cost reductions expected in the near future. The market for solar energy collection/conversion hardware would be significantly impacted by most SSP scenarios. Current worldwide PV production is approaching 100 MW per year, a production level lower than the rate required by most SSP scenarios. New PV plants are being built to provide production rates on the order of ~ 10 MW/yr with an investment requirement of nearly $ 1 per W/yr capability. Scaling a plant up to 100’s MW/yr or GW/yr should reduce this investment requirement (investment $ per W/yr capability) even further suggesting that an investment cost of just less than $0.50 per W/yr for systems to be built 10 to 15 years in the future may be very reasonable. Power Transmission Manufacturing Requirements Assessment A similar comparison to power transmission manufacturing requirements is summarized in the table below. Again, all requirements are derived for comparable scenarios with similar power delivery capabilities (and costs are shown in FY ‘96 dollars).
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