Figure 4-17 SSP Production Quantity Influences Supplier Markets Assessment of market influences with and without assuming SSP production is required to derive CERs applicable 10 to 15 years into the future. Many SSP items, such as solar cells, require large enough production levels to significantly impact market growth. For these types of items, material cost savings beyond what is captured by the 10 to 15 year projection CERs may be possible. This SSP-specific market force is captured by the manufacturing model and is not represented by the derived CERs. A Technical Interchange Meeting (TIM) was held at NASA LeRC in June of 1996 to collect cost and performance data for key SSP systems/subsystems/technologies and to support development of CERs. Parametric production cost estimates representing current and future design practices were obtained from technical experts/specialists at this meeting and used as a basis for estimating manufacturing facility costs. Cost inputs obtained were intended to capture impacts from anticipated technology advances and most of the parametric values represented lower cost design practices than would typically be used for space systems. Without a detailed SSP point design, it is difficult to precisely estimate production costs; however, it is even more difficult to derive parametrics for estimating manufacturing requirements to accommodate the broad range of SSP concepts under evaluation. This somewhat simplified approach has limitations. The most significant is the lack of sensitivity to production time requirements. Production rates (W/yr or kg/yr) vary from scenario to scenario and make it difficult to compare manufacturing requirements for the different SSP approaches. It makes intuitive sense that a production plant capable of making 100 MW worth of solar panels each year would be less expensive than a 1 GW/yr plant, but the relationship of plant cost to production rate is not linear and the economic viability of a manufacturing approach is dependent on many characteristics of each SSP approach. 4.4.3. Assessment of Results Because the selected approach is intended to capture costs 10 to 15 years into the future, it is difficult to fairly compare the results to current production plant investment requirements. One interesting comparison that can be made is between a 300 GW SolarDisc scenario and the 1979/1980 Reference Study (also providing 300 GW). Manufacturing requirements were estimated assuming similar build up schedules (production of 10 GW of SSP capability per year) for two key SSP systems - solar energy
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