The main issue regarding this approach is what to use for the starting point, or first unit cost. Many CERs (Cost Estimating Relationships) exist for estimating costs of space hardware today, but these have limited applicability for estimating the requirements of an SSP system that would not be built for 10 to 20 years. Additionally, using space-based CERs derived from past satellite developments would result in extremely large costs for a system sized to SSP requirements. Likewise, ground-based CERs would not adequately cover the increased costs of ensuring reliable operation in space. The correct starting point is likely to be between the ground and space CER estimates, but there is some uncertainty in determining how close the SSP hardware costs could be to the ground-based CER estimate. The graph below was derived using an industry standard hardware cost model and shows how costs grow across a variety of platforms. The plot does not show the magnitude of the difference which is typically much larger for electronics than for mechanical systems. Figure 4-16 Production Cost is Sensitive to Assumed Hatform Special attention must be given to derivation of CERs for key SSP hardware elements. Space-based CERs can be thought of as an upper bound and ground-based CERs represent the lowest possible cost. Also, both the space and ground CERs need to be representative of requirements when the SSP development begins - 10 to 15 years from present. In this 10 to 15 year timeframe, markets for certain SSP items may grow with or without assuming SSP production. Generally speaking, as the market grows, unit production costs decrease as shown in Figure 4-17.
RkJQdWJsaXNoZXIy MTU5NjU0Mg==