2.2.1. Assumptions And Sources This report provides a brief summary of energy trends. More detailed information can be found in the principle sources used in this analysis. These were reports produced by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Information Agency (DOE/EIA) on domestic and world energy markets. These reports provide extensive data tables, trend analysis, and market growth projections. Two key reports which provide extensive projections and consistent data over time, are the “Annual Energy Outlook” (report number DOE/EIA-0383(96) January 1996) and the “International Energy Outlook” (report number DOE/EIA-0484(96) May 1996). These reports give growth projections based on extensive energy modeling systems as well as annual updates. Both of these reports can be found via the Internet at http:04/04/97/www.eia.doe.go. To augment the information in these reports, an analyst from EIA also participated in a Technical Interchange Meeting (TIM) held July 24 and 25, 1996. The following assumptions were made by EIA in forecasting world energy consumption. • The world gross domestic product (GDP) will grow 3% annually through 2015. The world population will increase from $5.7 biDion to $7.5 billion in 2015. • Real energy prices win remain relatively stable over the forecast period, with a slow rise in oil prices from $ 15 to $25 dollars per barrel In addition there win be no extreme changes such as those experienced in the late 1970’s. • With regard to the type of energy being consumed, natural gas is replacing oil for many uses. Global nuclear generation capacity win decrease and decommissioned OECD reactors win not be replaced. However, some Asian countries win increase nuclear power capacity. It is also expected that energyefficient technologies win be adopted world-wide. 23. Outlook for Competing Sources of Energy A space solar power system would in many cases compete with terrestrial sources of energy. This analysis considered future trends in the availability and price of major energy sources and of patterns of use of these sources around the world. The assessment of SSP revenue took into account regional use of different fuels by considering relative prices and poUution that could be avoided. The DOE/EIA projections of world-wide consumption described above are based on projections of consumption of five "fuels," or sources of energy: oil, coal, natural gas, nuclear, and renewables. The first four are fuels. Renewables include hydroelectric, geothermal, solar, wind, and other renewable sources of energy such as biomass. Nominal projections for fuel consumption total 471.7 quadrillion Btu in 2010. The projections include non-fiiel uses of oil and coal for which other sources of energy cannot compete effectively. Otherwise, they show the expected result of competition among existing sources of energy for shares of the total
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