7.6.1. Critical Technologies Summary A specific set of critical technologies has been identified as enabling for the modular, lower-cost SSP concepts identified and analyzed by the “fresh look” study. These include: • Very low-cost space launch - Payload classes of approximately 20 MT to LEO - Launch costs to LEO consistent with RLV or lower for exploration applications - Launch costs of about $ 100/Ib to LEO for SPS • Long-Lived and Low-Cost Megawatt-class space power and thermal systems - Including high-temperature superconductor power cabling and systems • High-Efficiency and Low-Cost Solar Energy Conversion - Tailored and multi-bandgap photovoltaic arrays - Thin-film solar arrays or large thin-film concentrators phis PV arrays • High-efficiency and high-specific impulse, large-scale electric and/or electromagnetic propulsion systems - Including both ion/plasma thrusters and electrodynamic tether propulsion in the LEO-MEO regime • High-efficiency and long-lived solid state RF devices, integrated in high-power phased arrays - Capable of very large phased array RF transmitter systems, with electronic beam steering from ± 5 degrees to ± 30 degrees. • Large, high-packaging efficiency, tension-stabilized structures - Inflatable systems (including self-rigidizing inflatable structures) - Tether systems • Modular and self-assembling systems - Autonomous rendezvous and docking - Integrated system check-out, test and health monitoring • Systems that respond robustly to debris/micrometeorite impacts - Including multi-strand, high-power tether-cabling systems 7.6.2. Projecting SSP Manufacturing Costs Achieving commercial aviation-class manufacturing of SPS system elements is an absolute requirement if economically-viable space solar power is to be realized.. (Typically, this means achieving costs per kilogram of system comparable with those regularly achieved by the commercial aviation industry —eg-, for Boeing 747s, etc..) The selected approach to analyzing SSP manufacturing in the current study differs significantly from what was used in the 1979 SPS Reference Study, where the emphasis was placed on defining detailed manufacturing capabilities first, and then calculating resulting production costs. Due to rapidly improving manufacturing practices, this approach would be very difficult to implement for concepts that would be deployed 15 to 20 years in the future. The selected approach focuses on most likely production costs in the future, and then backs into a manufacturing estimate based on expected revenues from production units. The approach to deriving CERs (Cost Estimating Relationships) for key SSP hardware elements must be carefully considered. Space-based CERs can be thought of as an upper bound and ground-based CERs represent the lowest possible cost. Also, both the space and ground CERs need to be representative of
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