Case 1 SolarDisc (xl) Case 1 characterizes a single SolarDisc system concept, located at a GEO orbit and sized to provide service to a single Mega-city-class market (at 5 GW power delivered) through a single terrestrial rectenna site. For this case, both the SolarDisc and ground rectenna site are assumed to be deployed in one year. This case illustrates the basic “building block” for GEO scenarios in the Fresh Look study. Case 1 is not intended as a realistic case, per se. The Internal Rate Of Return (IRR) of about 12% undiscounted is low due to the nonrecurring capital costs, such as establishing a manufacturing base for the fabrication of SolarDisc SPS systems. The financial analysis yields a sharply spiked cost profile as another result of the one year deployment scenario. The basic GEO, Mega-city SPS characterized by a single SolarDisc (or other, comparable approaches) represents a dramatic improvement when compared to the 1979 Reference System (Cases 2 and 3 below), yielding a 3- to 4- fold reduction in the required investment-to-first-power: less than $60B for a single SolarDisc versus more than $250B for the Reference. However, this case indicates that even the new SolarDisc concept represents a substantial investment, comparable to the largest of terrestrial power projects, such as the Three Gorges Dam Project currently under development in China. A potential line of investigation for this case could involve varying the deployment time to a period commensurate with terrestrial projects of this magnitude (e.g., 5-10 years or more for deployment, versus a single year in Case 1 as posed). Case 2 Reference (SFY 1996) Case 2 presents a high-level summary of the 1979 Reference System concept, with cost and other economic information updated to 1996-year dollars. This case involves 60 SPS systems in GEO, each SPS sized to provide service to a single Mega-city-class market (at 5 GW power delivered) through a single terrestrial rectenna site. The total power delivered by this architecture is therefore 300 GW. The estimated investment-to-first-power for Case 2 is very substantial at more than $250B. However, the analysis of this case as part of this study was limited by relying on the results of the original DOE/NASA study. The overall financial performance could not be analyzed in detail due to the limited information available about certain aspects of the original study. A more rigorous reconstruction of the Reference System case would be highly usefill for future studies to allow consistent, parametric variation of that system and architecture, and a complete comparison with new concepts. Case 3 Reference (SFY 1979) Case 3 represents the actual results of the original DOE/NASA study, presented in FY 1979 dollars. It is provided only as a reference point-for comparison of this study to the original. Case 4 SolarDisc (x60) Case 4 involves 60 SolarDiscs deployed at multiple GEO locations. Each SPS is sized to provide service to a single Mega-city-class market (at 5 GW power delivered), each through a single terrestrial rectenna site. The total power delivered by this architecture is 300 GW. Case 4 was designed to allow an “apples-to-apples” comparison of the Reference System (as updated in Case 2) to a concept based on the new approaches to GEO SPS examined in this study. This case achieves an overall internal rate of return of 21%, with total revenues of approximately $13,000 B, costs of $1,900 B, and an undiscounted net present value of about $ 11,000 B (or $317 B when discounted at a rate of 10%). This case assumes a deployment rate of 2 SPS per year for a period of 30 years. A full 60 SPS system based on the SolarDisc or other comparable approaches, with a deployment rate of approximately 2 SPS per year, involves a greater investment-to-first-power than Case 1 ($135 B instead of $60 B), due to greater initial investments in ETO transportation infrastructure, vehicles, etc. This still represents a better than 2:1 reduction when compared to the 1979 Reference System (Case 2).
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