growth at 3% per year; and Scenario IV3 posits a 3% real GNP growth rate with energy and conservation policies the same as they were in 1977. Oil prices quadruple in real terms between 1978 and 2010 for Scenarios I and II (approximately $66 per barrel of “marker crude” in 2010 $1981), double in Scenario III (approximately $33.00 per barrel of “marker crude” in 2010 $1981), and remain constant in real terms in Scenario IV at $17 ($1981). The table indicates a wide range of possible energy futures. Total energy demand in 2010 ranges from a low of 64 quads to a high of 188 quads, compared to a level of 78 quads in 1978. Similarly, demand for electricity (including conversion losses) ranges from a low of 17 quads in 2010, below the 1978 level of 24 quads, to a high of 71 quads. Solar ranges between 2 and 6 quads and hydroelectric between 6 and 13 quads in 2010, with synfuels accounting for between 7 and 34 quads. Although the scenarios differ widely, some fairly consistent patterns emerge. For example, except in Case IV,s the highest GNP growth, lowest oil price, and lowest conservation case, oil and natural gas use are below 1978 levels. Except in Case L the lowest GNP growth, highest oil price, highest conservation case, coal use at least doubles and is the largest single energy source, while electricity use increases by 18% or more. Hydro and nuclear at least double in each of the cases. Reinforcing this trend, between 1978 and 1981, oil use fell over 15% while coal use rose 14%. In Table 2, which presents the same data in percentage of energy demand terms, a somewhat similar pattern emerges. Oil and natural gas account for a significantly smaller proportion of energy demand in each of the cases than at present. Coal's share of energy demand increases in each of the cases, with coal accounting for at least one-third of energy demand in each of the cases except I2. Nuclear's share ranges between 8 and 16%, while hydro ranges between 7 and 11%, and solar between 1 and 9%. Electricity's share ranges between 17 and 38%, compared to 33% at present.
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