of the next generation of satellites, INTELSAT VI, are in the $1-2 billion range, depending on how many satellites INTELSAT purchases. Most estimates of the cost of a multisatellite SPS network are in the $100 billion—$ 1 trillion range. There is likely to be a scale effect involved in bringing together the resources needed to create the system which will make the task of reaching agreement among system participants substantially more difficult than was the case for INTELSAT. (b) Elements of concern — Major issues in the INTELSAT negotiation were the price and quality of service and access to the technology involved. In addition, the SPS concept is accompanied by substantial concern over its environmental impacts and its national security implications. These additional elements would greatly complicate the political process surrounding SPS negotiations, adding more participants with different interests and concerns which must be reconciled or accommodated. (c) Distribution of technical capability — The United States was able to exercise preponderant influence within INTELSAT negotiations because of its virtual monopoly over relevant technology. While the U.S. lead in space technology remains, it is no longer unchallenged, even if the Soviet Union is discounted. Europe and Japan have advanced space programs and have been examining the SPS concept actively. Perhaps the United States could decide to develop SPS as a unilateral venture and then to negotiate a framework for its operation from a position of technological strength, but it seems more likely that any SPS effort would from the start be multilateral at the technical level. This would be bound to change the character of negotiations leading to a system framework, since the distribution of bargaining advantages would not be so skewed in favor of the United States. (d) Role of developing countries — Both the interim and definitive INTELSAT negotiations were carried out among Western industrial democracies (plus Japan). Developing countries were very much on the sidelines. In the current global political and economic context, it would be very difficult to exclude developing countries and their interests and needs from negotiations over setting up a SPS network. Broadening the number of participants and the range of interests represented would make the political process for institutionalizing SPS extremely complex. As the above suggests, there is far from a one-to-one correspondence between the nature, scope, and context of INTELSAT and the conditions which might accompany the development of SPS. While success at creating INTELSAT may reasonably be taken as indicating the possibility of finding a cooperative approach to develop SPS. it certainly does not indicate how possible (or how close to impossible) such an undertaking would be. GLOBAL CONTEXT FOR SPS DEVELOPMENT The creation of INTELSAT took place in a particular global context; the context within which SPS negotiations might be held over the next few decades will certainly be much different than that during the 1962-1971 period. Among the major trends likely to influence this context are as follows: (a) The unquestioned economic leadership of the United States among Western countries has disappeared as Europe and Japan have recovered their economic vitality in the years following World War II. Economic and political relationships among the countries of Western Europe, Japan, and the United States have become exceedingly complex, and are marked as much by competition for economic and political
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