The evolutionary approach proposes to treat space manufacturing as a sector of the U.S. economy. Growth will occur at the rate justified by experience, but by continuing infusions of capital and other resources from Earth. Dependence on some unknown phenomenon of a rapidly-growing self-contained economy is thus avoided. New industries are typically formed as offshoots of existing industries, to exploit new innovations that are initially applied as incremental improvements accumulate, the new industrial technology becomes economically self-sufficient and may enter a period of “explosive” growth to become, over a period of two to four decades, a major economic sector, possibly one that will reshape society. Whether or not space settlements and extraterrestrial resources will follow this historical pattern cannot now be predicted. But the evolutionary approach described in this paper is compatible with such a possibility. Acknowledgements — The Editor wishes to thank Ed Bock, David R. Criswell, and Gerald O'Neill for their assistance in reviewing this paper. REFERENCES 1. Gerard K. O'Neill, The Colonization of Space, Physics Today, Sept. 1974. 2. Department of Energy, SPS Concept Development and Evaluation Program Plan, DOE/ET-0034, 1978. 3. J. Grey et al., Space Manufacturing Facilities, AIAA, 1977. 4. J. Billingham er al., Space Resources and Space Settlements, NASA SP-428, 1979. 5. J.F. McCarthy, Jr. et al., A Systems Design for a Space Colony, MIT, 1976. 6. E.H. Bock et al.. Lunar Resources Utilization for Space Construction, Contract NAS9-15560, General Dynamics, 1979. 7. R.H. Miller and D.B.S. Smith, Extraterrestrial Processing and Manufacturing of Large Space Systems, NASA CR-161293, 1979. 8. Department of Energy, Satellite Power System Concept Development and Evaluation Program, Reference System Report, DOE/ER-0023, 1978. 9. E.H. Bock et al., Effect of Environmental Parameters on Habitat Structural Weight and Cost, in Space Resources and Space Settlements, NASA SP-428, 1979. 10. B.R. Sperber et al., Laser SPS Analysis, Boeing Document D180-25969-3 prepared under Contract NAS9-15636, 1980. 11. Boeing Aerospace Company, Solar Power Satellite System Definition Study Reference System Description, Boeing Document D180-25461-2, Nov 1979, revised Feb 1980.
RkJQdWJsaXNoZXIy MTU5NjU0Mg==