Qe of SPS-delivered energy (225,000 MW installed generating capacity at 90% capacity factor).! SPS is designed to provide baseload electricity. By contrast, except for ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC), terrestrial solar electrical generation is intermittent. Because our energy future will require a mix of baseload and intermittent generating technologies, terrestrial solar, without storage capability, would not compete directly with SPS. However, the development of inexpensive storage, if achieved, could enable terrestrial solar electricity generation in all its forms, wind, solar thermal, and solar photovoltaics, to assume some share of baseload capacity.t These technologies are less complex, have fewer uncertainties, and are considerably nearer to commercial realization than SPS. Furthermore, they have the flexibility to be introduced into the electrical grid in small increments as needed to meet demand increases on a local scale. Even if inexpensive storage is not available, on-site generating technologies could compete indirectly with SPS. If a significant portion of total electrical demand can be met by a combination of dispersed technologies such as solar photovoltaics, wind, and biomass at costs which are competitive with centrally generated electricity, then total need for baseload power will decrease. Low demand for centrally generated electricity would consequently reduce the need to introduce new, large scale electrical technologies such as SPS, except as replacement capacity. Aa- an energy option for the first half of the 21st century, the potential electrical output and uncertainties of SPS are comparable to fusion. These energy options will proceed along different development paths. Except for a laser system, the basic SPS technologies have been proven technically feasible. Research would be needed to develop low-noise microwave tubes; high efficiency, low-mass photovoltaics; efficient continuous-wave lasers; low-mass mirrors; and space construction and transportation capabilities. Although the fusion community is confident that fusion is feasible, “energy break-even,” the production of more energy than is put into the fusion process, has not been proven. For both SPS and fusion, a cost effective generating plant would still have to be developed and demonstrated. Both energy options are designed to produce baseload central station power in units from 500 to 5000 MW. For both, development cost is high. For fusion, much of the manufacturing infrastructure for the balance of plant, i.e., other than the fusion device itself, is in place. Most of the supportive infrastructure for SPS, including the industrial plants and the transportation system, would have to be developed. INTERNATIONAL AND MILITARY IMPLICATIONS There could be important economic and political advantages to developing SPS as a multinational rather than a unilateral system. These include cooperation in establishing legal and regulatory norms; shared risk in financing the R&D and construction costs; improved prospects for global marketing; and forestalling fears of economic domination and military use. Although a multinational effort would face tCurrent U.S. generating capacity is about 600,000 MW. Current demand represents about 45% of this capacity operating 100% of the time. (The percentage share of baseload capacity which it would be feasible for these technologies to assume would depend on their geographical location and the time of year.
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