An aggressive terrestrial solar and conservation program which could lead to an electricity demand level of only 8 quads (Qe)* in 2030 (equal to current consumption) would make the development of SPS as well as other large new centralized generating technologies less urgent in the U.S. In any event, coal could continue to fuel the greatest share of U.S. electrical needs until well into the 21st century, provided no barriers to its use become evident. Coal, conventional nuclear, terrestrial solar in its many forms, and geothermal power could satisfy the entire domestic electricity requirement for demands totalling 20 Qe (2.5 times current level) or less in 2030 (see Table 2). If demand is higher than 20 Qe, then presumably SPS, breeders and/or fusion will be needed. Electricity demand will be strongly affected by the degree that efficient technologies for using electricity can be developed. Such technologies can have the effect of lowering the overall cost of electricity compared to competing energy forms. If generation from coal on a large scale proves to be unacceptable, domestic electrical consumption of 8 Qe or less could still be met by nuclear, geothermal, and terrestrial solar power (central plant and on-site). For demands of up to about 20 Qe, SPS could compete with terrestrial and solar power, breeders, and/or fusion for a share of the centralized baseload market. If electricity demand exceeds 20 Qe, it will be difficult to satisfy that demand without vigorous development of all renewable or inexhaustible forms of generating capacity. For these higher demand levels, SPS, breeders, and fusion could all share in supplying U.S. electrical needs. A 30 Qe (3.8 times current consumption) total demand would create a market potential for up to 6 *A quad is equal to one quadrillion BTU. It is equivalent to the energy contained in 500,000 barrels of oil per day for one year, and is also approximately the electric energy produced by a 33,500 MW generator running without interruption for a year. As used here, quads (Qe) of demand refer to the energy equivalent of electricity at point of use. Primary energy input at the generating source of electricity is somewhat more than 3 times these figures.
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