living standards. And finally in this setting, culminating in the dramatic events of October 1973, the potential of solar energy was rediscovered and the development of solar energy technology was again being seriously pursued. Currently, solar energy research and development is directed toward new and improved technology, approaches to reduce the cost of conversion, and designs and processes to permit low-cost mass production. Although expectation for significant benefits are high, results on the desired scale are unlikely to be achieved quickly, not because of the lack of appropriate technology but because of the lack of appreciation heretofore of the potential of solar energy and therefore the limited experience with . such technology. Numerous studies project what will happen by the year 2000 and how to deal with global, national, and regional energy problems. Mostly, these studies focus on pricing, management, and allocation of available resources that must be dealt with within an existing infrastructure. However, changes which could be made within the existing infrastructure will not have an impact in the short term. But, they will have to be made to bring about the transition from oil and gas, and other nonrenewable energy resources, to the renewable energy sources which will be essential to the proper functioning of the energy economies in the future. Therefore, because the impacts of solar energy will not be widespread for one or two decades, the time horizon must encompass a period beyond 2000. Shifting too soon, or too quickly, to solar energy could strain national economies. Shifting too late, or too slowly, might also impose inescapable pressures on some fossil fuels, resulting in sharply escalating prices and consequent damage to these economies — as it happened in 1973 and continues to this day. Huge energy supplies will also have to become available if the developing countries are to approach the economic level of industrialized countries. The future annual energy resource requirements of developing countries are projected to be more than four times the total world energy production in 1970 (about seven billion tons of coal equivalents). As industrial countries will remain major users of the world’s energy resources, the prospect of supplying about 30 billion tons of coal equivalents per year (with the resulting environmental effects) to meet the aspirations of developing countries confirms the desirability, if not necessity, of a significant global use of solar energy. The political consequences of increasing solar energy use are likely to be the most far reaching and may require extensive and unprecedented international cooperation. But such cooperation could lead to a safer and more stable world. In contrast, the use of other energy resources based on nonrenewable fuels would be unlikely to have such desirable effects since most of these fuels are under the political control of only a few geographically favored nations. Solar energy could supply a major portion of future energy needs if effective ways can be found to economically and efficiently convert it to heat, power, electricity, or other fuels. Industry and government in many nations are investigating which solar energy applications are most likely to be successful, what products should be developed, how big the solar energy market will be, and when the potential of solar energy will be realized on a significant scale. The major challenge to the effective applications of solar energy is that it is a diffuse and distributed resource requiring large areas for conversion into useful form and, therefore, capital-intensive technology. The successful and widespread introduction of solar energy technology will require considerable development to strike the appropriate balance among the conflicting economic, environmental, and societal considerations.
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