Fig. 2. Projected energy demand and supply for the European economic community ( southern Spain, but in most parts of Europe it would be much more expensive to use solar energy for electricity generation than in the United States. Only thirty years ago, Europe was almost self-sufficient in energy. Since then, however, consumption has more than doubled and the additional demand has had to be met with imported energy, mostly in the form of oil. The increase in the import of energy has recently slowed down, due to an increase of domestic oil and gas production, reduced economic growth and energy conservation measures. There is no indication, however, that the present dependence of large parts of Europe on energy imports will be reduced in the foreseeable future. In view of the considerable lead time for the introduction of a new energy source — typically thirty to fifty years elapse between the feasibility demonstration and significant market penetration — there is probably for the next thirty years no alternative to the trend indicated in Fig. 2 without assuming a large reduction in our future energy consumption. The projections in Fig. 2 imply that Europe will continue to import at least 50% of its energy, mainly in the form of oil or coal, and that approximately 500 nuclear reactors, each of 1 GW, will have to be installed in Europe by the year 2000. The figures for imported energy do not include uranium fuel for nuclear reactors, and Europe’s dependence on imported energy sources would increase from the present level of 50%-60% to more than 75% in the year 2000, if current types of nuclear reactors are used or continue to be used instead of the fast-breeders. The European commission’s energy-supply projections (5) consider contributions from several new sources or technologies. The commission has estimated, however, that these will not supply more than 2%~5% (450-900 TWh) of the energy needs in the
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